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Finding a data set that supports a theory is not enough for the theory to gain credibility. Credibility of a theory is established only after the initial supporting finding can be replicated by a number of follow‐up studies. Economics so far has paid little attention to replicability, presumably because the profession has been overly pessimistic about obtaining a high degree of replicability of non‐trivial theoretical predictions.
By using a large data set I have collected that involves more than 4,000 subjects, I show that there is hope for economic theory to gain credibility by means of replications of laboratory data. 1 Introduction The landscape of economic research has changed rather dramatically over the past couple of decades. The development and success of careful empirical methods to evaluate the effects of policy intervention, named the credibility revolution (Angrist and Pischke, ), have created a large body of literature and active research that pay serious attention to the credibility of empirical research. Table shows the impact of this movement, where credible findings firmly grounded on empirical data are taking over the speculation about theoretical possibilities.
Year Theory Theory with simulation Empirical: Borrowed data Empirical: Own data Experiment 1963 50.7 1.5 39.1 8.7 0 1973 54.6 4.2 37.0 4.2 0 1983 57.6 4.0 35.2 2.4 0.8 1993 32.4 7.3 47.8 8.8 3.7 2003 28.9 11.1 38.5 17.8 3.7 2011 19.1 8.8 29.9 34.0 8.2 It is commendable that empirical researchers now take the issue of credibility much more seriously, but application of the credibility criterion should not be limited to empirical and applied areas. God of war ascension patch 1.12. In this methodological essay, I suggest one possible way to make economic theory more credible; namely, by paying more attention to replicability of the data obtained in economic experiments.
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Recently, after a disappointing finding about the low replicability of experimental results in papers published in psychology journals, replicability has (finally) attracted some attention in economics. Camerer et al. ( ) examined experimental findings in 18 selected papers published in leading economic journals, and they found that 11 (61%) of them are replicable.
Although the percentage is much larger than that in psychology (36% replicability), the paper only tests the one‐time replicability of 18 selected papers, and there have not been systematic attempts in our profession to test the credibility of empirical or theoretical findings by their repeated replicability. In the present article, I examine the replicability of two economic experiments where theory provided highly non‐trivial predictions that are largely supported in the initial experimental data. Examining the replicability of such a finding is the very method by which the credibility of a theory is established in hard sciences, and following that procedure is a good way to make economic theory more credible.